Considering all of the action that went on last weekend, rates have
responded positively. With the nationalization of the two mortgage
giants Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, the government showed its most
aggressive action taken to date to go along with the bill that has come
out of Congress recently, the President signing it whole heartily and
the Fed and its continued stance with the federal funds rate. Rates on
most programs are down however the 30yr fixed saw the most decline, some
of which was given back towards the end of the week, yet still below
previous highs.
The basics behind why this has happen is twofold. First the market as a
whole as saw the nationalizing of Freddie and Fannie as a positive in
that it stabilized the two largest holders of mortgages in the world. If
they would have gone down some believe that it would have been
catastrophic to our economy and others. Secondly, the difference in the
yield between a 10yr US treasury note and a mortgage backed security
(MBS) issued by Fannie Mae began to shrink. Usually the MBS trades at a
slightly higher premium than the 10yr t-note. Since the "mortgage
crisis" started about a year ago or so the premium has increased as the
crisis worsened. Now however, that spread between the two is decreasing
due to the simple fact that both are now backed by the US Government. So
the question is what is the difference between the two?
Currently the MBS has a higher yield than the 10yr t-note so some
believe investors may turn their attention to the MBS and away from the
10yr note. Typically you could follow the ebb and flow of the 10yr
treasury note and get a pretty accurate feel on what was going to happen
to rates. Now we may see the yield on the 10yr raise while rates drop.
This as the yield on the MBS drops and closes the gap on the spread
between the two. So now the question that your probably thinking is, "
What the heck does all this mean to me??"
Well, some "experts" feel that this balancing of the two securities will
mean rates in the low 5% range in the foreseeable future. With home
prices where they are and rates in that range we could see more and more
people becoming buyers again. Of course this is all speculative and in
fact some "experts" think that the above means nothing and that mortgage
rates will continue their movement within a .5% to 1% range.
Whatever you believe, we still have historically low rates and to quote
someone else, it could be hazardous to your clients financial health to
pass up a rate in the low 6 or high 5% range just to try and get 5.25%.
When I moved to Phoenix to begin my career out here rates were at 8.5 -
9.0% , and that was only January of 1999. If that gives you any
perspective.
Hope this helps. Please feel free to contact me if you have any
questions.
Heidi
